Hello,
this is Darrell Castle with today’s Castle Report. Today I will be
talking about the crash, or more accurately, the shooting down, of
Ukrainian International Airlines Flight 752. The flight took off from
Tehran’s Imam Khomeini International Airport, and just about five
minutes later, the Boeing 737-800 exploded in flight. No one argues
about that, but what caused the explosion and crash, people do argue
about.
First claim: Flight 752 suffered engine failure
Initially, the Iranian government claimed the crash was an
accident due to engine failure. So the first reaction of the Iranian
Regime was to lie. I suppose the lie was to avoid international
criticism, but also perhaps because that’s just what governments
do. The minute I heard about it I was certain of the cause. The
Iranians shot it down by mistake and as an overreaction to fears of
an American attack.
By week’s end the Regime admitted that the airliner was shot
down by an Iranian air defense missile mistakenly fired due to
“American adventurism”. The aircraft contained 82 Iranians, 63
Canadians, 11 Ukrainians, 10 Swedes, 4 Afghans, 3 British and 3
Germans. None survived.
Before Flight 752 crashed: a failed missile
attack
Just a few hours before the crash, the Iranians had launched
missile attacks from the area near the crash at bases containing U.S.
troops in Iraq. Intelligence reports indicated that about 25% of the
missiles failed to ignite or misfired in some other way. Usually in
these types of attacks entire missiles are located when they fail to
reach the target and fail to explode. That is what happened in the
attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil fields earlier last year. That tells
us that the hype about Iranian missile technology may be a bit
exaggerated.
According to media speculation, growing pressure from Canadian
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and from President Donald Trump,
forced the Iranians to admit that they shot the aircraft down.
Whether that was the reason or not, they did admit it, and fairly
quickly. Furthermore they admitted to originally lying about the
cause and they apologized for that.
Why shoot down Flight 752, a civilian airliner?
So what really happened here? I mean why would the Iranian
government would shoot down a defenseless airliner that was no threat
to anyone? Speculation and guesswork are the only things we have, but
I can think of a few possible reasons. The most plausible is the
answer the regime gave. Which is, it was a mistake due to a
heightened alert status because of an expected American attack.
A plausible mistake
That answer seems plausible to me and makes logical sense. The
Iranian armed forces had fired several missiles at American forces in
Iraq, so they were obviously on high alert. They were quite
forthright in their admission and their apology, which is unusual and
unexpected. How could such a mistake happen? That’s an easy one to
answer. Untrained or inexperienced launch officer or missile troops
could have panicked when he or they saw the airplane on his or their
tracking target radar. It could have been a mistake in command which
released the weapons to fire without proper confirmation.
Remember a few years ago when the United States guided missile
destroyer Vincennes accidentally shot down an Iranian airliner with
277 people on board? When tensions are high and threats are going
back and forth you create a perfect environment for a fatal mistake.
Or did Iran target some Flight 752 passengers?
Another possible answer is that the Iranians deliberately targeted
someone, or some group of people, on the airliner and simply used the
American dispute as cover. Perhaps there were several Canadians that
they thought were espionage agents or were spying on their nuclear
program in some way. That possibility seems rather remote to me and
it doesn’t make as much sense as the simple mistake theory.
The final explanation didn’t surface until yesterday, at least
that’s the first I heard of it, and that version is that an
American Cyber attack caused the Iranian computers to lock on, track,
and kill the airliner and everyone on board.
A rough two weeks
In any event it’s been a tough couple of weeks for the Iranians.
They exchange bluster and then attacks with the Americans, and part
of the bluster was the Ayatollah telling Donald Trump “there is not
a damn thing you can do.” The Ayatollah learned an important
lesson, and that is, that hellfire missiles carried on whisper silent
drones are up there and they are watching anyone they want to watch.
Such a missile killed top Iranian General Soleimani at the Baghdad
airport along with an important Iraqi. That attack led to a series of
retaliatory strikes, and then what appeared to be a ceasefire or
stand down agreement. But further attacks and threats led to a
buildup show of force in the Gulf region by the Americans and
British.
After Flight 752, a buildup of forces
Dozens of B-52 bombers, B1 and B2 bombers along with the most
advanced stealth fighter aircraft deployed to the region. The Persian
Gulf and the Mediterranean were filled with warships to the extent
that some were apparently close to colliding, as the Russians tried
to intimidate American captains. Politicians in America, especially
Democrats, were screaming World War III at the top of their lungs.
Nancy Pelosi even persuaded the House to pass a toothless,
non-binding resolution restricting the President’s ability to
attack Iran. None of them seemed to understand that the Constitution
already restricts his authority to make war on his own decision.
Flight 752 prompts anti-government demonstrations
in Iran
Meanwhile, in Tehran and other Iranian cities, tens of thousands
of people were in the streets risking their lives by screaming not
death to America but “Death to the Dictator” and “Death to
Liars” as well as “Khamenei is a Murderer.” The national unity
that appeared briefly after the killing of General Qassim Soleimani
disappeared as fast as it arrived.
Police, uniformed and plain clothed, as well as Iranian military,
deployed in force to curtail the protests. They even arrested the
British ambassador to Iran, Rob Macaire, and charged him as “an
unknown foreigner in an illegal gathering”. Once his identity and
status were confirmed they let him go but it is not a very safe time
for non-Iranians to be out in the streets of Tehran.
Worse news: more deaths
The bad news got even worse, however, because at General
Soleimani’s funeral at least 56 attendees were trampled to death
and more than 200 injured. So it’s been a bad couple of weeks for
the Iranians, and even before that, about a month ago some 1500
protesters were killed and many more arrested, so they have been
under continuous pressure for some time. The severe economic
sanctions imposed by the Trump Administration have left the regime
with problems even supplying the population with enough food.
Dissatisfaction throughout Iran
Middle East Eye reports Iranians on the street as saying
“God has turned his back on us”. I don’t know why no positive
thing occurs in Iran. We are frustrated by all the bad news we are
hearing. Some people were quoted as saying they were “fed up”
with living under sanctions and angered by the way the government has
handled the problems. It’s interesting to me that the Iranian
people seem to be blaming their own government for the sanctions
rather that the government, which actually imposed the sanctions.
A report done by the website Numbeo, which monitors
conditions in Iran, reported a growing dissatisfaction within the
country due to economic stress. The average after tax wage is U.S.
$318.53, so a monthly survival budget with basic food such as white
rice and eggs, along with rent and utilities comes to $345.22 so it’s
easy to see the cause of dissatisfaction.
Food, medicine, birth rates all short or down
According to official government data, food price inflation was
28% year on year at year end. Medicine is another problem as much of
it cannot be found in pharmacies. Reduced consumption takes a toll on
efforts to have a normal family life. According to the Tehran
Times, the number of babies born in Iran fell by nearly 25%
between 2015 and 2019. That is an unprecedented decline outside of
wartime, especially since the number of women of child bearing age
actually increased over the same time frame.
No oil sales = no money
Iranians cannot sell their only valuable resource, oil, on the
world market. Sanctions enforced by the U.S. Navy, have basically
closed off the Persian Gulf to Iranians. Since no money of any
consequence is available to the government, the government cannot
provide food and medicine distribution which has led to desperate
conditions inside Iran. Desperate conditions exist in Iran if you
believe the reports coming out from various international agencies
and the people are starting to rise up and express themselves even if
it means risking their own lives.
A water crisis
Another problem the Iranian people face is water resources and
what the Journal of Asian Affairs called government
mismanagement of it. About 97% of the country is currently
experiencing drought conditions. It is one of the worst water
conditions among industrialized nations and it is forcing the
abandonment of outlying villages as people move into the cities.
Threat of war: real or empty?
Not many nations have been willing to endure this level of
deprivation without full war mobilization. I suppose war would be an
excuse and a cover up for the mismanagement and misuse of the
nation’s resources. The Iranian President, not the Supreme Leader,
but the President Hassan Rouhani recently appeared on state run
television to say the U.S. and especially E.U. troops in the Middle
East are in danger and will be targeted. He used the word “insecure”
to refer to them.
I wonder if he is suicidal himself or whether he is just willing
to risk it for the people of his nation. The regime seems to be more
unstable with each passing day and apparently that’s the way the
U.S. President wants it. Why would the U.S. government want to see an
unstable Iran? It’s anybody’s guess but I will give you three
possible reasons:
Three reasons to want Iran unstable: real background of Flight 752
- The stories and accusations about Iran are true and it is the world’s terrorist center. General Soleimani needed to be killed because as American General Petraeus said, “he was responsible for providing explosives, projectiles, arms and other munitions that killed well over 600 of our soldiers.”
- An unstable Iran helps Israel and keeps Israel’s most hated enemy from regaining strength and otherwise occupied.
- The Project for a New American Century. The PFANAC is a doctrine set out several years ago as a determination to build an American headed uni-polar world for this century. In order to accomplish that goal, the nations of the Middle East should be destabilized and those not conquered should be kept in a state of chaos. Economic sanctions and other methods would be used to weaken enemies and keep them unstable.
Which is it?
Finally folks, choose one of these three or think of your own but
as for me I’ll take the Project for a New American Century.
At least that’s the way I see it.
Until next time folks,
This is Darrell Castle.
About the image
“Boeing 737-800 LN-DYH” by ahisgett is licensed under CC BY 2.0

The three possibilities that the author mentions at the end are not mutually exclusive. All, or any two, might be true. But I would point out that President Trump has not behaved toward his Western European allies in a manner suggesting that he believes in continuing the “Project for a New American Century.” Or at least, not as if he believes in creating an America-centered global polity. “Pay some of the freight, or we withdraw our protection” is not something a would-be conqueror ever says to the representatives of any country where he has moved or stationed troops.
Dr. Steven Turley suggests that Iran is the third major globalistic threat, after the People’s Republic of China and, most threatening of the three, the Project for a New World Order of George Soros and the United Nations. That would support Reason 1 above. Reason 2 becomes justifiable because Iran has always held itself at war with Israel, just as Iran has held itself at war with the United States since 1979. (See Mr. Castle’s earlier article.)