Iran war about to break out?

Flag of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Trump just trashed a "deal" with them. (Will war result?) Time to imagine a post-Ayatollah Iran. Did Obama try to wangle an October Surprise in Iran? Maybe, but he probably didn't get it. And today: shall we grant asylum to those who might propose to impose "Iranian" government values on us?
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Will an Iran war break out soon? Who will fight them? Israel? America? Britain? Iran is clearly preparing to defend herself—or to attack.

Signs of an imminent Iran war

The signs are all around us, though many don’t agree on what to make of them. The Daily Telegraph and The Daily Mail both report that the Iran Revolutionary Guard is now on full war alert. The National Post reminds its readers of several things that the Iranians have done to isolate themselves. They include the storming of the British Embassy and an alleged attempt to assassinate some Saudi diplomats in Washington. The Daily Mirror quoted American officials as calling Iran a “pariah state.” Newsmax.com speculates that the Iran war has already begun, and that the United States is already fighting it with sabotage.

Tony Karon at Time seems to think that all this activity is still “business as usual.” But that doesn’t explain at least one, possibly two, explosions at Iranian military camps and bases. One caused the deaths of a ranking IRG general and seventeen others. Another took out a base from which the Iranians could launch solid-fueled rockets. Mike Evans points out that solid-fueled rockets can launch without warning, a thing that liquid-fueled rockets cannot.

An Iran war with whom?

Flag of Israel. A target in an Iran war?

Flag of Israel

The next question is what the other party in an Iran war would be. Most seems to think that America, Britain, or both would be the other parties. The ostensible catalyst: Iran’s nuclear-fuel development program, or nuclear weapons-development program. The prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran is the more frightening because Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran’s president, has said many inflammatory things in the last year or so. Chief among them:

  1. Wishing to wipe the Republic of Israel off the map.
  2. Believing that he is the forerunner for the Return of the Twelfth Imam.

That second thing probably has Iran’s neighbors preparing for war with Iran themselves. The Twelfth Imam is a Shi’ite story. Iran’s neighbors are Sunni, not Shi’ite. Beyond that, Iranians are not Arabs. They are an Aryan people, while their neighbors are Arabs. The two sides have never gotten along, and have been at odds for centuries.

Beyond this, Iranian and Israeli officials each seem to fear an attack by the other. (Also, Khaled Diab, an Egyptian, published this piece in Ha’aretz, in which he accused Ahmadinejad and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu each of provoking war with the other for domestic political reasons.)

Outcome of an Iran war

At least some observers think that Iran can have no plans to attack Israel. The reason: they would surely lose. History backs this up: the Arabs fought four major wars with Israel, and lost them all. If the Iranians think they will far any better, say some, then they are berserkers.

The things that Ahmadinejad has said in the last few years are the sort of thing a berserker would say. Then, too, the Bible (Ezekiel chh. 38-9) predicts that Iran will go to war with Israel, as part of a larger Russia-led coalition. That coalition will include Libya and Ethiopia (but probably not any Arab countries, except perhaps for Syria). The Bible also says that Iran will still lose.

Related:

Iran nuclear program blasts: accident or sabotage?

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Terry A. Hurlbut has been a student of politics, philosophy, and science for more than 35 years. He is a graduate of Yale College and has served as a physician-level laboratory administrator in a 250-bed community hospital. He also is a serious student of the Bible, is conversant in its two primary original languages, and has followed the creation-science movement closely since 1993.

14 Responses to Iran war about to break out?

  1. R E Konrad says:

    I don’t know if war or not war is going to be up to Iran. Yes, I think they are that stupid. Their leaders seem to really believe their own koran generated craziness. That they would actually believe the insanity about the magical appearance of the 12th imam is plausible. Their bellicosity is a matter of public knowledge and their rumored progress toward a nuclear weapon is scaring the entire world, because the Iranian leaders are nuts. The kicker is, if Israel gets nervous enough, they will start it by taking out any hope that Iran might have toward being an actual nuclear power. If Iran does attack Israel first, no doubt in anyone’s mind who will win, but the Iranian “black robes” don’t seem to care. They seem to have no worries at all about their own casualties, secure in their certainty that all “shahidas” will go directly to heaven and start jumping their virgins. That war will come is almost a no brainer, but who will start the ball is up for grabs. It’s only a matter of time….and I imagine there is someplace where bets are taken on when.

  2. Fergus Mason says:

    “History backs this up: the Arabs fought four major wars with Israel, and lost them all.”

    Is this a bad time to point out that, as your own article clearly states, Iranians aren’t Arabs? There are many good reasons why Israel has easily defeated its Arab neighbours (see the paper “Why Arabs lose wars,” http://www.defencejournal.com/2003/apr/arabs-lose-wars.htm) and none of them have to do with Israeli military brilliance; in fact, within NATO the general opinion is that if it wasn’t for their nukes Israel would probably lose a war with Belgium. The regular Iranian armed forces aren’t up to Israeli standards but they’re not bad, and they’re backed up by enormous reserves, a large special operations capability and an asymmetric warfare capability that goes beyond vast. Could they roll a tank column into Tel Aviv? No. Could they give Israel a good battering and bleed their military and population for a good long time? Almost certainly.

    • Steve says:

      I would be willing to bet that the next mideast war will not be between Israel and only Iran, but rather will be against a concerted group of Arab (and Persian) countries who seek to ‘wipe Israel off the map’.

      And I will go further out on that limb by stating that they (the joint Arab armies) will lose.

      One way or another, they will lose.

      • Terry A. Hurlbut says:

        Maybe you’re reading not only the same history I have read, but the same prophecy, too. [Ezekiel chh. 38-9]

      • Fergus Mason says:

        I’d say that’s unlikely, as the Gulf Arabs would side with Israel against Iran. Unless the beardies vote in a leadership even crazier than Netanyahu and Lieberman, Israel isn’t a threat to the Gulf states. Iran, and their own Shia populations, are.

        Anyway, Iran’s just sabre-rattling because they don’t like having US forces to both east and west. Ahmadinejad doesn’t have the authority to start a war without the Guardian Council and the ayatollah. In any case what he REALLY said was that zionism would vanish into the sands of history, not that Israel would be wiped off the map.

        • Terry A. Hurlbut says:

          You might want to re-read available reports on what Ahmadinejad actually said.

          However, Ezekiel chapter 38 does not necessarily predict Arab participation in an anti-Israelite coalition. The Arabs might sit around and just talk. (“Sheba and Dedan, and the merchants of Tarshish with their young lions, will ask you,…”)

          • Fergus Mason says:

            Ezekiel doesn’t predict ANYTHING; it’s the ravings of a long-dead madman. As for a direct Iranian attack on Israel, it just isn’t going to happen. At most they’ll use terrorist proxies, just like everyone in the Middle East (Israel included) does.

          • Terry A. Hurlbut says:

            If you have proof of that last statement, I’d appreciate it.

          • Fergus Mason says:

            There are plenty examples. Start with Operation Susannah, a false-flag where Mossad used Egyptian jews to bomb British and American targets in Egypt. The facts about IDF use of Falangists in Lebanon are also interesting. And of course the series of shootings and car bombs in Europe in the 1990s are very much regarded as terrorism.

          • Terry A. Hurlbut says:

            I think you’re repeating PLO propaganda. And I remember who planted those car bombs in Europe in the 1990s, and it wasn’t Mossad.

          • Fergus Mason says:

            I think not. Israel has given awards to the surviving Op Susannah terrorists and were definitely behind a number of the European car bombs, as well as the murder of an Arab waiter in Lillehammer.

          • Terry A. Hurlbut says:

            Can you show any of that? Where did you get your information?

  3. the idea of Iran starting a war always makes me a little skeptical, because they haven’t really invaded anyone in a few hundred years (unless you count them taking over American embassies). We on the other hand seem to invade a new country every new President. Im not saying Iran isn’t dangerous or crazy, but I am skeptical of their ability to start a war and think it is foolish for people to do this sort of warmongering.

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