Last night, Mitt Romney gave his speech accepting his place on the ballot for President. By every account except from the Obama campaign, all who heard that speech, liked it. But he might have more reasons to believe he’ll win. And not only win, but score a landslide.
The turnout election
Polls show Mitt Romney and Barack Obama nearly even. Not only that, but not many voters seem “undecided” now. So most conventional poll watchers say that the secret to winning this November will be turnout. Who, between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama, can turn out more of his followers?
Dick Morris says, nearly every other day, that Barack Obama scores highly in polls among people who never vote. But Mitt Romney scores highly among people who always vote.
But Mitt Romney has far more evidence than that.
Mitt Romney holds Barack Obama below fifty
Former Governor Mitt Romney at a townhall in Sun Lakes, Arizona. Photo: Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 2.0 Generic License
Barack Obama, his record aside, is an incumbent. He wants the voters to choose him again, as they did four years ago. So why has he never drawn fifty percent of any sample?
Dick Morris has a theory for that, too. The undecideds always break for the challenger. Morris always explains his theory this way: if you’re married, and if your marriage contract were somehow up for renewal, and you were undecided on whether to renew it, how well do you love your spouse? Chances are, when such a contract ran out, you’d let it lapse. Voters feel the same way about incumbent office holders, says Morris. And he has history to prove that.
Barack Obama has never earned fifty percent yet in any poll. If Dick Morris’ theory is correct, he never will. Result: Mitt Romney wins.
The Bradley Effect
When a non-white runs against a white, sample members don’t like to tell a poll taker that they will vote for the white man over the non-white. Just ask former Mayor Tom Bradley (D-Los Angeles, CA). Polls, even exit polls, showed him winning re-election in 1982. He lost. Why did he lose? Because in the voting booth, privacy reigns. No one looks over your shoulder in the voting booth! (Not in America, they don’t. At least, not yet.) Adam Shaw, at American Thinker, explains.
Result: add five points or so to Mitt Romney’s numbers to guess how people will vote this fall. If they’re tied now, Mitt Romney wins decisively.
The Shy Tory Effect
Some people are just as shy about calling themselves conservative as about voting for a white man ahead of a non-white or a woman. In 1992, polls incorrectly predicted that the British Labour Party would take over Parliament. They didn’t. The “Shy Tories” told pollsters that they would vote for Labour, and voted Tory instead. America might have more than a few “Shy Elephants.” Mitt Romney can, of course, count on those.
Mitt Romney: another Reagan?
Former Senator Al D’Amato (R-NY) boldly said yesterday that Mitt Romney would fool the pollsters the same way Ronald Reagan did in 1980.
Well number one, we’re not taking [Barack Obama] for granted. Number two, we know [Obama] is a wonderful communicator. Number three, there’s a sense of can you really believe him? Isn’t he more about showbiz? We have the opportunity to say, “[Putative] President Obama, you made those promises but you haven’t kept them. Your performance has been inadequate. You have not earned the right to the people’s confidence.”
Today, The Washington Times said that Mitt Romney will take a key page from Ronald Reagan’s playbook:
Are you better off now than you were four years ago?
CNAV spoke to a dentist in northern New Jersey about this yesterday. He candidly said that Mitt Romney would win by a far greater margin than current polls show. He went on to say why:
Up to now, only the political junkies have paid attention to the campaign. But from now on, the regular folks will pay attention. Gasoline will cost four dollars a gallon by Labor Day, My wife tells me that grocery prices are already way higher than they’ve been in a long time. All these things will make people pay attention, and they’ll blame the man in power.
The dentist was talking, furthermore, about gasoline prices in a state with low gasoline taxes. New Jersey funds its three longest highways (the New Jersey Turnpike, the Garden State Parkway, and the Atlantic City Expressway) with tolls. Every bridge across the Hudson and Delaware Rivers has a toll. Without them, gasoline prices would be much higher. So if gasoline costs four dollars a gallon in New Jersey, imagine how much it costs in States, most of whose big highways are freeways.
So Mitt Romney has at least five reasons to feel confident of winning.